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Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (KYMR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results missed Street expectations: collaboration revenue $2.76M vs consensus $23.55M and EPS ($0.94) vs ($0.78), driven by minimal revenue recognition and higher R&D plus a $3.86M impairment charge; stock catalyst shifts to December KT-621 Phase 1b AD data readout . Estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Cash balance $978.7M provides runway into 2H 2028, funding parallel Phase 2b programs in AD and asthma, KT-579 Phase 1 start, and initial Phase 3 activities, with adjusted cash OpEx slightly lower sequentially per CFO .
  • KT-621 program execution: BroADen Phase 1b enrollment/dosing completed with biomarker/clinical endpoints to be shared in December; BROADEN2 Phase 2b AD trial initiated; BREADTH Phase 2b asthma to start in Q1 2026 .
  • Pipeline momentum: KT-579 (IRF5) IND-enabling complete; Phase 1 to begin early 2026; partnered IRAK4 (KT-485) expected to enter Phase 1 in 2026; CDK2 molecular glue collaboration with Gilead progressing .
  • Near-term narrative drivers: Dupilumab-like biomarker bar (70–80% TARC reduction at Week 4) for KT-621, placebo mitigation in AD trials, and dose-ranging across AD/asthma to enable Phase 3 selection; management emphasizes first-and-best positioning and capital discipline .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • KT-621 STAT6 program milestones: completed Phase 1b enrollment/dosing in moderate-to-severe AD; initiated BROADEN2 Phase 2b AD; asthma Phase 2b on track for Q1 2026 .
  • Strong liquidity and runway to 2H 2028, supporting multiple clinical inflection points and initial Phase 3 activities; CFO reiterated runway excludes unearned milestones from partners .
  • IRF5 KT-579 progressed: IND-enabling complete; robust preclinical efficacy across lupus/RA; Phase 1 to start early 2026 .

Selected quotes:

  • “We’ve completed patient enrollment and dosing in the KT-621 BroADen Phase 1b trial in AD… and we plan to share the full data set next month.”
  • “We ended September with a cash balance of $978.7 million, providing a cash runway into the second half of 2028.”
  • “KT-579’s compelling and consistent preclinical data… underscores the transformative potential of targeted protein degradation to address the pathogenic functions of IRF5.”

What Went Wrong

  • Topline financials missed Street: revenue $2.76M vs $23.55M*; EPS ($0.94) vs ($0.78)*, reflecting lower collaboration revenue recognition in Q3 and elevated R&D plus a $3.86M impairment .
  • YoY operating expenses rose to $95.3M vs $75.9M in Q3’24, driven by STAT6 investment and organizational growth; net loss widened to ($82.2M) vs ($62.5M) YoY .
  • Sequential revenue drop from $11.48M in Q2 to $2.76M in Q3, following recognition of remaining deferred revenue from Sanofi in Q2 and Q3 revenue attributable to Gilead only .

Financial Results

Core P&L and EPS vs prior periods and YoY

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.74 $22.10 $11.48 $2.76
Net Loss ($USD Millions)($62.49) ($65.58) ($76.61) ($82.18)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$75.87 $96.53 $96.03 $95.29
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.82) ($0.82) ($0.95) ($0.94)

Estimates vs Actuals (Q3 2025)

MetricS&P Consensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$23,552,140*$2,764,000 -$20,788,140 (−88%)
EPS ($USD)($0.7817)*($0.94) ($0.16) miss

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Expense and Cash KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$60.41 $80.26 $78.39 $74.09
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$15.46 $16.27 $17.65 $17.34
Impairment ($USD Millions)— $0.00 $0.00 $3.86
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($USD Millions)—$775.49 $963.07 $978.74
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted)76.13M 80.15M 80.45M 87.30M

Collaboration Revenue Breakdown

PeriodTotal Revenue ($USD Millions)Partner Attribution
Q3 2024$3.74 Sanofi
Q2 2025$11.48 Sanofi (incl. recognition of remaining deferred)
Q3 2025$2.76 Gilead

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayMulti-yearFirst half of 2028 (Q1 2025) Second half of 2028 (Q2 2025, maintained in Q3) Raised in Q2; Maintained in Q3
KT-621 BroADen Phase 1b (AD) data4Q254Q25 readout December 2025 Refined timing
KT-621 BROADEN2 Phase 2b (AD)InitiationInitiate 4Q25 Initiated; topline mid-2027 Achieved; timeline specified
KT-621 BREADTH Phase 2b (Asthma)InitiationQ1 2026 On track Q1 2026 Maintained
KT-579 (IRF5) Phase 1 startInitiationEarly 2026 Early 2026 Maintained
Sanofi KT-485 (IRAK4)Phase 1Expected 2026 Expected 2026 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
STAT6 program paceFirst patient dosed in BroADen; Phase 2b planned 4Q25/Q1 26 Positive HV data; doses selected; Phase 2b initiation guided Phase 1b enrollment/dosing complete; AD Phase 2b initiated; asthma Phase 2b on track Q1 26 Accelerating execution
Biomarker bar (TARC 70–80%)Set expectation for dupilumab-like biomarkers HV data showed median TARC reduction up to 37% Management reiterates 70–80% TARC reduction target at Week 4 in AD patients (baseline dependent) Clear benchmark reiterated
Placebo mitigation in AD——Protocol/site selection, rater training, sponsor oversight to control placebo Heightened focus
Dose selection and Phase 2b design—Doses selected; AD ~200 patients, 3 doses + placebo Using same doses for AD/asthma in Phase 2b; goal to see dose response Consistent approach
Competitive landscape——First-and-best strategy; skepticism on STAT6 inhibitors matching degrader pharmacology Assertive positioning
Capital allocation discipline—Extended runway post financing and Gilead upfront “Earn the right to invest”; balance STAT6 vs broader pipeline Disciplined messaging
IRF5 program scopeNew program unveiled; Phase 1 early 2026 Ongoing IND-enabling; ACR data planned ACR data presented; Phase 1 early 2026 confirmed Progressing to clinic

Management Commentary

  • “We’ve completed patient enrollment and dosing in the KT-621 BroADen Phase 1b trial… and we plan to share the full data set next month.” — Nello Mainolfi, CEO
  • “We ended September with a cash balance of $978.7 million, providing a cash runway into the second half of 2028.” — Bruce Jacobs, CFO
  • “We entered the Broaden study expecting clinical activity of KT-621 to be in the range of what dupi delivered at four weeks… with all the caveats of small n’s and the lack of a placebo.” — Nello Mainolfi
  • “The study is powered to enable us… to look across the three different doses and to see if we can discern any sort of a dose response.” — Jared Gollob, CMO
  • “We don’t do resource allocation because we have money. We allocate capital because we earn the right to do more.” — Nello Mainolfi

Q&A Highlights

  • Differentiation vs dupilumab: Management frames KT-621 as blocking IL-4/IL-13 signaling via STAT6 as effectively as upstream biologics, aiming for a “dupilumab-in-a-pill” profile; hesitant to assert superiority a priori .
  • Dose strategy: Phase 1b used two doses to translate degradation from HV to patients; Phase 2b uses three doses spanning sub-optimal to maximal pharmacology to see dose response .
  • Patient mix and placebo: Expect substantial naïve-to-advanced therapy enrollment across global sites; placebo mitigation via protocol rigor, experienced raters/training, and tight sponsor oversight .
  • Durability/adherence: Daily oral dosing supports steady-state blockade; biomarker suppression in HV continued through 14 days, with gradual recovery only after stopping; degraders may maintain pharmacology despite occasional missed doses .
  • Capital allocation: Despite high cash, emphasis on milestone-driven deployment with KT-621 prioritized but not at the expense of broader mission and pipeline .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue and EPS missed Street consensus: $2.76M vs $23.55M* and ($0.94) vs ($0.78)*, respectively, reflecting the absence of large collaboration revenue recognition (Q2 recognized remaining Sanofi deferred; Q3 revenue from Gilead only) and higher R&D plus a $3.86M impairment .
  • Estimate revisions likely to temper near-term revenue/EPS given collaboration-dependence and stepped-up program investment; the December KT-621 biomarker/clinical readout is the pivotal driver for sentiment and model updates.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 headline miss is less thesis-relevant; focus shifts to December KT-621 Phase 1b AD data (biomarkers and early clinical endpoints) as the primary stock catalyst .
  • Liquidity is robust with $978.7M and runway to 2H 2028, enabling parallel Phase 2b (AD/asthma), KT-579 Phase 1 entry, and initial Phase 3 preparations without immediate financing risk .
  • Management sets a clear biomarker bar (TARC 70–80% at Week 4) aligned with dupilumab; meeting this could validate the “biologics-like” oral story and support Phase 3 dose selection .
  • Placebo risk in AD studies is being actively mitigated (protocol, rater quality, sponsor oversight), a constructive signal for Phase 2b readthrough .
  • Revenue variability will persist given collaboration accounting; model focus should be on cash runway, OpEx trajectory, and pipeline milestones rather than quarterly revenue prints .
  • Competitive positioning emphasizes degrader pharmacology over STAT6 inhibition; first-and-best strategy plus rapid execution could secure category leadership if clinical data align .
  • Near-term trade: Setup into December readout with clear management expectations; medium-term thesis hinges on Phase 2b execution across AD/asthma and IRF5 clinical validation in 2026 .